ThelessonsofstatefailureTraditionaldiplomacydealswithrisksofconflictbetweennation-states.Theserisksareofcoursestillpresent,butamorepervasivedangeristhatstateswillsimplycollapse.OfadozenorsoconflictsinAfricainrecentyears,few,ifany,haveinvolvedcross-borderaggression.Instead,bankruptandimpoverishedstateshaveimploded,thevacuumfillednotbyregimeswithnewlyconsolidatedpowerbutbybrutalviolenceengulfingcivilians.Thedisasterthenfansouttoneighboringcountries,andeventuallymuchfartherafield.Aspecial"taskforceonstatefailure"setupbyAmerica’’sCIAhasfoundthatthreevariablesaremostpredictiveofstatestabilityorinstability:theopennessoftheeconomy;democracy;andinfantmortality.Insub-SaharanAfrica,wheremuchofthepopulationlivesontheedgeofsubsistence,povertyandsloweconomicgrowth,oroutrightdecline,increasedthelikelihoodoffuturestatecollapse,therebytrappingthecountriesinaviciouscircleofpovertyandpoliticalinstability.Richcountries,ontheotherhand,tendtomaintainpoliticalstabilitywhich,inturn,promotesfurthereconomicdevelopment.Whencountrieswereclassifiedin1990bytheirstatusintheUnitedNationsHumanDevelopmentIndex(anindexofincome,literacyandhealth),high-developmentcountriesachievedrobustandstableeconomicgrowthduring1990-98,withaveragegrowthratesofaround2.3%ayearandwith35outof36countriesenjoyingrisinglivingstandards.Middle-developmentcountriesachievedaslightlylowergrowthrate,1.9%ayear,but7outof34countriesexperiencedoutrightdeclinesinlivingstandards.Thepoorestcountriesaveragednoeconomicgrowthatall,with15outof39experiencingfallinglivingstandards.Theflip-sidetothepovertytrap,however,isthatthegainsofdevelopmenttendtobesustained,oncecountriesbreakthroughtosufficientlevelsofincome,healthandliteracy.ConservativesinAmericaoftenaskwhyitmattersifanimpoverishedcountrycollapses.Theansweristhat,asidefromhumanitarianconcerns,crisesinsuchfarawayplacesoftensucktheUnitedStatesintocrisisaswell.Since1960,AmericahasbeendraggedintomilitaryconflictsinCuba,Thailand,Laos,Congo,Vietnam,theDominicanRepublic,Cambodia,Cyprus,Lebanon,Zaire,ElSalvador,Libya,Lebanon,Honduras,Nicaragua,Chad,Liberia,Bosnia,Somaliaand,morerecently,KosovoandColombia.Statefailures,orevenmilderstateinstability,havealsounderminedAmericanandglobalintereststhroughgloballytransmittedfinancialcrises,drug-trafficking,money-laundering,terrorism,thespreadofdiseasessuchasAIDSandmassrefugeeflows.Onthepositiveside,sustainedeconomicdevelopmentwouldcreatenewandpotentiallylargegainsfromtrade,aswellasmuch-neededcooperationinscienceandculture.Evenwhenaproblemiscorrectlyidentified,thereisastunningdisconnectbetweenriskandactioninAmerica’’sforeigneconomicpolicy.TheglobalAIDSepidemic,forexample,hasrecentlyandwiselybeenidentifiedasarisktothesecurityoftheUnitedStates.WhatactionhasbeentakenPresidentGeorgeBushhascalleduponAmericanstogivejust$200million,or70centseach,tothenewglobalfundtofightthedisease.Thefailuretomakeevenbasicinvestmentsinforeignpolicyhasbeenpervasive,andtheexamplesarelegion.Elevenyearsago,thelastprimeministerofunifiedYugoslavia,AnteMarkovic,launchedalast-ditchplanforeconomicstabilization.HeappealedtoEuropeandtheUnitedStatesforareductionindebt-servicingandothermodestfinancialsupport,butwasturneddownbythecreditorgovernments.Economicstabilisationwasundermined,andthishelpedSlobodanMilosovictogettheupperhand.Therest,astheysay,ishistory.InthepasttwoyearsAmericaandEuropeancountrieshavemadethesamemistakeinNigeria,animpoverishedandunstablecountryemergingfromyearsofcorruptdespotism.AlthoughNigeria’’soilearnings,netofproductioncostsandincometoforeignoilcompanies,amounttoaroundonly$90perNigerianayear,theUnitedStatesandEuropecontinuetoprevaricateoverurgentlyneededdebt-reductionbecausetheoilearningsareeasytosqueezefordebt-servicepayments.ThenewdemocraticregimeofPresidentOlesegunObasanjoisputatrisk,andLibya’’sleader,MuammarQaddafi,doesnotmissachancetoinflamemattersinNigeria’’sIslamicnorthernstates.Areaafterareaofneglectcanbecatalogued,fromthestrife-tornAndestoregionsaroundtheworldunderminedbyclimatechange.Throughallofit,theUnitedStatesbarelyliftsafinger.ItsomehowthinksthatsendingtheimpoverishedandunstablegovernmentsdownPennsylvaniaAvenuetogetloansfromtheIMFandtheWorldBankwilldothejob,butevensomestaffofthoseorganisationsnowpubliclyacknowledgethattheyhavefailed:makingloanswhengrantsareneeded,imposingexcessiveausteritybycollectingratherthancancelingdebts,andfailingtofindpartner-institutionswiththescientificexpertisetotackleunderlyingproblemsofdisease,lowfoodproduction,climaticstressandenvironmentaldegradation.
举一反三
- Webecamefriendsquite________accident. A: by B: in C: at D: outof
- The Mekong River flows through eastern Cambodia from in the north. A: Laos B: Vietnam C: China D: Thailand
- Cambodia is bordered by Thailand on the west, Thailand and Laos on the north.
- I traveled through Thailand, Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia。译为:我游历了泰国,老挝,越南和哥伦比亚。
- Mr.Whitegot<spanstyle="text-decoration:underline;">outof</span>hiscar<spanstyle="text-decoration:underline;">and</span><spanstyle="text-decoration:underline;">walk</span><spanstyle="text-decoration:underline;">into</span>ashop. A: outof B: and C: walk D: into