Urbanization—migrationawayfromthesuburbstothecentralcity—willbethebiggestrealestatetrendin2015,accordingtoanewreport.ThereportsaysAmerica’surbanizationwillcontinuetobethemostsignificantissueaffectingtheindustry,ascitiesacrossthecountryimitatethewalkabilityandtransit-orienteddevelopmentmakingcitieslikeNewYorkandSanFranciscososuccessful.Assmallercitiescopythemodelofthese“24-hourcities”,moreaffordableversionsoftheseplaceswillbecreated.Thereportreferstothisasthecomingofthe“18-hourcity”,andusesthetermtorefertocitieslikeHouston,Austin,Charlotte,andNashville,whichare“positioningthemselvesashighlycompetitive,intermsoflivability,employmentofferings,andrecreationalandculturalamenities.”Anothertrendthatlookssignificantin2015isthatAmerica’slargestpopulationgroup,Millennials(千禧一代),willcontinuetoputoffbuyingahouse.ApartmentswillretaintheirappealforawhileforMillennials,hauntedbywhathappenedtohome-owningparents.Thistrendwillcontinueintothe2020s,thereportprojects.Afterthat,surveyrespondentsdisagreeoverwhetherthisgenerationwillfollowintheirparents’footsteps,movingtothesuburbstoraisefamilies,orwillchoosetoremainintheurbancore.Thesurveyprojectsthatthispopulationcohortwillevolveandsegmentovertime,andwarnsagainstpaintingthegenerationwithtoobroadabrush.AnotherissueaffectingrealestateinthecomingyearwillbeAmerica’sfailinginfrastructure.Mostroads,bridges,transit,watersystems,theelectricgrid,andcommunicationsnetworkswereinstalled50to100yearsago,andtheyarelargelytakenforgranteduntiltheyfail.Thereport’swritersstatethatAmerica’sfailuretoinvestininfrastructureimpactsnotonlythehealthofthereal-estatemarket,butalsoourabilitytoremaingloballycompetitive.Apartfromthespecifictrendshighlightedabove,whichcausesomeinvestorstoworry,thereportportraysanoveralloptimismbornebytherecenthealthyreal-estate“upcycle”andimprovingeconomy.Seventy-fourpercentoftherespondentssurveyedreporta“goodtoexcellent”expectationofreal-estateprofitabilityin2015.Whileexcessiveoptimismcanpromotebadinvestmentpatterns,resultinginareal-estate“bubble”,thereport’swritersdownplaythatpotentialoutcomeinthatithasnotyetoccurred.SomerespondentstotheEmergingMarketssurveycalltheurbanizationtrend“oversubscribed”,andthereportconcedesthattheredoexistsomeedgecitiesandsuburbswithpromise.Buttheseplacesarefewandfarbetween.Themostsuccessfulplacesarethosebuiltusingurban-designprinciples—withdensity,walkability,andgoodtransit.Real-estateinvestorsin2015needtopayattentiontothetwomainconclusionofthereport:ifapropertyresemblesorreliesuponsprawlinanyway,ordoesn’tappealtoMillennials,thinkbeforeyouinvest.